I am wondering if there exists a way to get a numerical estimate of the probability of whether or not a given society will evolve a story with certain characteristics within a certain amount of time. For example: what is the probability that the Mayans, given 1000 more years, would have evolved some kind of story like Atlantis (i.e. involving a sinking city)? I'd also be interested in a cumulative probability that predicts how often you'd expect a type of story to evolve in any culture in the world ever (ex. how many Atlantis stories would you expect to be independently evolved worldwide within 1000 years?). I don't want to calculate the probabilities using just historical comparison, because I don't think enough mythological evolution has taken place in history to achieve statistical regularity for every type of story (i.e. it's too small of a sample size to use for reliable predictions).
Does the kind of measure I am looking for exist?
EDIT: my motivation for this question, (in case it somehow helps) is to find out the likelihood that a myth would have evolved with the characteristics "contains unusual event", "has important practical implications", and "claims to have been witnessed by a approximately every member of the society (at the time) which believed in the myth" (an approximation of that probability of import to me because I am looking into a claim that said that the probability for this is so low that it shouldn't have happened even once in any society in history)